Guatemala,
English version Ayuda

 BEHAVIOR UP OF THE MAIN MONETARY, 2
EXCHANGE AND CREDIT POLICY VARIABLES  
                             
                                               
  PERFORMANCE AT   ECONOMETRIC ESTIMATION   HORIZONS MOBILE  
IV.  INFORMATION VARIABLES 12/31/2014   07/02/2015   07/09/2015   DECEMBER    
                             
                             
      A. MONETARY ISSUE             2015   2016   12 months   24 months  
                             
                 Level in millions 29,164.4   29,768.5   29,476.1                  
                 Year to Year Percentage Change  (%) 1/ 7.5   16.7   15.4   ( 7.0 - 9.0 )   ( 5.0 - 7.0 )   ( 4.1 - 6.1 )   ( 2.3 - 4.3 )  
                             
      B.  M2 DOMESTIC AND FOREIGN CURRENCY (DC + FC)                             
                             
                 Level in millions 183,567.8   192,288.8   191,664.0          
                 Year to Year Percentage Change  (%) 1/ 8.7   11.6   11.5   ( 10.0 - 12.0 )    ( 8.0 - 10.0 )   ( 8.7 - 10.7 )    ( 5.8 - 7.8 )  
                             
      C.  BANKING CREDIT TO THE PRIVATE SECTOR  (DC + FC)                             
                             
                 Level in millions 152,455.0   161,431.2   161,562.9                  
                 Year to Year Percentage Change  (%) 1/ 8.8   12.0   12.3    ( 10.0 - 13.0 )   ( 8.0 - 11.0 )    ( 8.7 - 11.7 )    ( 9.9 - 12.9 )  
                             
      D.  REAL EXCHANGE RATE BALANCE 2/   ITCER MISALIGNMENT          
                             
      2nd. Quarter 2014   3rd. Quarter 2014   4th. Quarter 2014   1st. Quarter 2015        
                             
           Model 1      -2.04%   -0.11%   2.90%   3.63%          
           Model 2     -1.41%   0.50%   3.47%   4.19%          
           Model 3      1.59%   1.59%   1.55%   1.41%          
                                 Average Models 1, 2 and 3     -0.62%   0.66%   2.64%   3.08%          
                             
                             
      E. INTEREST RATES OF ACTIVE AND PASSIVE, PERFORMANCE AT                  
           WEIGHTED AVERAGE OF THE BANKING SYSTEM 12/31/2014   07/02/15   07/09/15                  
                             
          1.  Domestic Currency                            
               a)   Lending Rates 3/ 13.64   13.15   13.12                  
               b)   Deposit  Rates   4/ 5.46   5.49   5.49                  
                             
          2.  Foreign Currency                            
               a)   Lending Rates 5/ 5.98   5.93   5.93                  
               b)   Deposit  Rates   6/ 2.93   2.99   2.98                  
                             
      F. INTEREST RATES SHORT TERM  (%)                            
                             
               Weighted Average Interest Rate of Repurchase (1 day) M / N 3.98   3.15   3.20                  
                             
      G. NEUTRAL INTEREST RATE (%)     December 2014   April 2015   May-15              
                             
            a) Gap (leading interest rate - neutral interest rate) 7/     -0.45   -0.58   -0.55              
            b) Second threshold  (+)      1.00   1.00   1.00              
            c) First threshold  (+)      0.50   0.50   0.50              
            d) First threshold  (-)      -0.50   -0.50   -0.50              
            e) Second threshold  (-)      -1.00   -1.00   -1.00              
                             
      H.  Monetary Conditions Index (MCI) (%)     December 2014   April 2015   may-15              
                             
            a) ICM calculation using the real exchange rate 8/     -1.19   -0.25   -              
            b) ICM calculation using the nominal exchange rate 8/     -0.23   -1.51   -0.87              
            c) Second threshold  (+)      2.00   2.00   2.00              
            d) First threshold  (+)      1.00   1.00   1.00              
            e) First threshold  (-)      -1.00   -1.00   -1.00              
            f) Second threshold  (-)      -2.00   -2.00   -2.00              
                             
1/ It refers to the comparison of the week study regarding the equivalent week of the previous year.
2/ Positive sign means overshooting,  negative sign means overdepreciation, with respect to the equilibrium exchange rate.
3/ By including the area of credit card loans, the average interest rate would be 16.05% weighted.
4/ By including the category of deposits, the average deposit interest rate would be 4.04% weighted.
5/ By including the area of credit card loans, the average interest rate would be 6.31% weighted.
6/ By including the category of deposits, the average deposit interest rate would be 1.95% weighted.
7/ Determines the monetary policy stance. A gap within the first threshold corresponds to a neutral stance. A positive gap above the second threshold would indicate a restrictive stance, while a negative gap below the second threshold corresponds to an accommodative stance.
8/ Determines the monetary policy stance. A value within the first threshold corresponds to a neutral stance. A positive value above the second threshold indicate a restrictive position, while a negative value below the second threshold corresponds to an accommodative stance.
 
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