Guatemala,
English version Ayuda

 BEHAVIOR UP OF THE MAIN MONETARY,   1
EXCHANGE AND CREDIT POLICY VARIABLES    
                   
I. POLICY TARGET    
         A. A MIDIUM-TERM INFLATION TARGET  FROM 2013 ONWARDS 4.0% +/-  1.0 p.p.   
   
II.  INFLATION TARGET  
   
  PERFORMANCE AT  
  12/31/2014 05/31/15 06/30/15  
      B.  INFLATION RATE (CPI)  
               Cumulative Country Report (%) 2.95 0.71 1.08  
               Year to Year Country Report (%) 2.95 2.55 2.39  
      C.  CORE INFLATION 1/  
               Cumulative Country Report (%) 2.17 0.98 1.23  
               Year to Year Country Report (%) 2.17 2.15 2.22  
   
III.  INDICATIVE VARIABLES   
  ECONOMETRIC ESTIMATION HORIZONS MOBILE  
  DECEMBER  
     
      A.  PROJECTED INFLATION (YEAR TO YEAR) 2/ 2015 2016 12 months 24 months  
          1.   Expected Interanual Inflation  (%)   
                a)  Upper limit  3.75 4.50 4.25 4.70  
                b)  Lower limit  1.75 2.50 2.25 2.70  
   
           2.  Core Inflation Forecast (%) 3/  
                a)  Upper limit   3.45 4.00 3.80 4.00  
                b)  Lower limit  1.45 2.00 1.80 2.00  
   
      C.  INFLATION EXPECTATIONS FROM THE POOL OF PRIVATE  INFLATION EXPECTATIONS HORIZONS MOBILE  
           ANALYSTS 4/   
   
  2015 2016 12 months 24 months  
                a)  Upper limit   4.63 4.80 4.25 4.67  
                b)  Lower limit  2.63 2.80 2.25 2.67  
   
      D.  PARAMETER RATE %   December 2014 May-15 Jun-15  
                a)  Central Value 3.92 3.53 3.49  
                b)  Upper limit  (2 Standard deviations) 5.92 5.53 5.49  
                c)  Upper limit  (1 Standard deviation) 4.92 4.53 4.49  
                d)  Lower limit (1 Standard deviation) 2.92 2.53 2.49  
                e)  Lower limit (2 Standard deviations) 1.92 1.53 1.49  
                 f) Target Interest Rate of Monetary Policy (From the calculation's date) 4.00 3.50 3.50  
   
  Forecast in May 2015 Forecast in Jun 2015  
      E.  POLICY INTEREST RATE (MACROECONOMIC MODELS) For the 3rd. Quarter 2015 a/ For the 3rd. Quarter 2015 b/  
                a)  Central Value 3.50 3.25  
                b)  Upper limit  (2 Standard deviations) 4.50 4.25  
                c)  Upper limit  (1 Standard deviation) 4.00 3.75  
                d)  Lower limit (1 Standard deviation) 3.00 2.75  
                e)  Lower limit (2 Standard deviations) 2.50 2.25  
                 f) Target Interest Rate of Monetary Policy (From the calculation's date) 3.50 3.50  
                   
1/ It excludes from the total CPI prices of goods and services whose monthly variation is positive or negative greater than two standard deviations from the monthly average price variation.    
2/ Respond to staff forecasts, which are subject to change depending on current internal or external conditions, as well as on the effects derived from monetary policy decisions. Inflation data at 06/30/15
3/ Two methods are used: 1) autoregressive integrated moving average model; and 2) exponential smoothing Holt Winters 
4/ Refers to the survey conducted in Jun 2014
a/ Applicable to second shift                      
b/ Corresponds to mechanical shift
b/ Corresponds to the first shift
                       
 
 
 
 
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